fa تحلیل تاثیر تکانه های قیمتی نفت بر بازار سهام در ایران عمومى General پژوهشي Research <div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size:14px;"><span style="font-family:yekanYW;"><strong><em><span style="line-height:normal"><span style="direction:rtl"><span style="unicode-bidi:embed"><span calibri=""><span lang="FA"><span b="" zar=""><span style="color:black">به دلیل ضرورت بررسی ارتباط میان بازارهای سهام با بازارهای&nbsp; نفت پژوهش های تجربی متعددی با روش ها و داده های مختلف برای بررسی رابطه علی بین قیمت سهام با قیمت نفت انجام شده است. نتایج حاصل از مطالعات در کشورهای مختلف، متفاوت است که ناشی از وجود برخی تفاوت های ساختاری در این کشورها بوده است</span></span></span><span dir="LTR"><span new="" roman="" times=""><span style="color:black">.</span></span></span><span lang="FA"><span b="" zar="">استفاده</span></span> <span lang="FA"><span b="" zar="">از</span></span> <span lang="FA"><span b="" zar="">نوسانات</span></span> <span lang="FA"><span b="" zar="">قیمت</span></span> <span lang="FA"><span b="" zar="">نفت</span></span> <span lang="FA"><span b="" zar="">به</span></span> <span lang="FA"><span b="" zar="">عنوان</span></span> <span lang="FA"><span b="" zar="">یک</span></span> <span lang="FA"><span b="" zar="">عامل</span></span> <span lang="FA"><span b="" zar="">مؤثر</span></span> <span lang="FA"><span b="" zar="">بر</span></span> <span lang="FA"><span b="" zar="">قیمت</span></span> <span lang="FA"><span b="" zar="">سهام</span></span> <span lang="FA"><span b="" zar="">را</span></span> <span lang="FA"><span b="" zar="">می</span></span> <span lang="FA"><span b="" zar="">توان</span></span> <span lang="FA"><span b="" zar="">با</span></span> <span lang="FA"><span b="" zar="">این</span></span> <span lang="FA"><span b="" zar="">واقعیت توجیه</span></span> <span lang="FA"><span b="" zar="">کرد</span></span> <span lang="FA"><span b="" zar="">که</span></span> <span lang="FA"><span b="" zar="">ارزش</span></span> <span lang="FA"><span b="" zar="">بنیادی</span></span> <span lang="FA"><span b="" zar="">سهام</span></span> <span lang="FA"><span b="" zar="">در</span></span> <span lang="FA"><span b="" zar="">تئوری</span></span> <span lang="FA"><span b="" zar="">برابر</span></span> <span lang="FA"><span b="" zar="">با</span></span> <span lang="FA"><span b="" zar="">مبلغ</span></span> <span lang="FA"><span b="" zar="">تخفیف</span></span> <span lang="FA"><span b="" zar="">انتظار</span></span> <span lang="FA"><span b="" zar="">جریان</span></span> <span lang="FA"><span b="" zar="">های</span></span> <span lang="FA"><span b="" zar="">نقدی</span></span> <span lang="FA"><span b="" zar="">آینده</span></span> <span lang="FA"><span b="" zar="">است</span></span><span dir="LTR"><span new="" roman="" times=""> . </span></span><span lang="FA"><span b="" zar="">دوم</span></span> <span lang="FA"><span b="" zar="">رویدادهای</span></span> <span lang="FA"><span b="" zar="">اقتصاد</span></span> <span lang="FA"><span b="" zar="">کلان</span></span> <span lang="FA"><span b="" zar="">که</span></span> <span lang="FA"><span b="" zar="">ممکن</span></span> <span lang="FA"><span b="" zar="">است</span></span> <span lang="FA"><span b="" zar="">نفت</span></span> <span lang="FA"><span b="" zar="">را</span></span> <span lang="FA"><span b="" zar="">تحت</span></span> <span lang="FA"><span b="" zar="">تاثیر</span></span> <span lang="FA"><span b="" zar="">قرار</span></span> <span lang="FA"><span b="" zar="">دهد</span></span> <span lang="FA"><span b="" zar="">تاثیر</span></span> <span lang="FA"><span b="" zar="">شوک</span></span> <span lang="FA"><span b="" zar="">ها</span></span> <span lang="FA"><span b="" zar="">است</span></span><span dir="LTR"><span new="" roman="" times="">.</span></span> <span lang="FA"><span b="" zar="">تحقیق</span></span> <span lang="FA"><span b="" zar="">حاضر</span></span> <span lang="FA"><span b="" zar="">تاثیر</span></span> <span lang="FA"><span b="" zar="">برخی</span></span> <span lang="FA"><span b="" zar="">از</span></span> <span lang="FA"><span b="" zar="">متغیرهای مهم اقتصادی</span></span> <span lang="FA"><span b="" zar="">رابر</span></span> <span lang="FA"><span b="" zar="">بازده سهام</span></span> <span lang="FA"><span b="" zar="">در</span></span> <span lang="FA"><span b="" zar="">ایران</span></span> <span lang="FA"><span b="" zar="">مورد</span></span> <span lang="FA"><span b="" zar="">توجه</span></span> <span lang="FA"><span b="" zar="">قرار</span></span> <span lang="FA"><span b="" zar="">داده</span></span> <span lang="FA"><span b="" zar="">است.</span></span> <span lang="FA"><span b="" zar="">بنابراین</span></span> <span lang="FA"><span b="" zar="">با</span></span> <span lang="FA"><span b="" zar="">در نظر</span></span> <span lang="FA"><span b="" zar="">گرفتن عرضه</span></span> <span lang="FA"><span b="" zar="">نفت،</span></span> <span lang="FA"><span b="" zar="">تقاضای</span></span> <span lang="FA"><span b="" zar="">کل</span></span> <span lang="FA"><span b="" zar="">و</span></span> <span lang="FA"><span b="" zar="">تقاضای</span></span> <span lang="FA"><span b="" zar="">نفت موثر بر بازده بازار سهام</span></span> <span lang="FA"><span b="" zar="">سعی</span></span> <span lang="FA"><span b="" zar="">در تبیین</span></span> <span lang="FA"><span b="" zar="">یک</span></span> <span lang="FA"><span b="" zar="">رهیافت</span></span> <span lang="FA"><span b="" zar="">همجمعی</span></span> <span lang="FA"><span b="" zar="">بر</span></span> <span lang="FA"><span b="" zar="">بازده سهام</span></span> <span lang="FA"><span b="" zar="">از طریق </span></span><span lang="FA"><span b="" zar="">روش</span></span> <span lang="FA"><span b="" zar="">خودرگرسیون</span></span> <span lang="FA"><span b="" zar="">برداری ساختاری </span></span><span lang="FA"><span b="" zar="">&nbsp;دارد. نتایج تحقیق نشان داد </span></span><span lang="FA"><span b="" zar="">شوکهای عرضه و تقاضای نفت و تقاضای کل بر قیمت واقعی نفت و بر بازدهی واقعی سهام تاثیر دارد</span></span><span dir="LTR">.</span></span></span></span></span><br> &nbsp;</em></strong></span></span></div> <div style="text-align: justify; margin-bottom: 13px;"> <pre style="margin-bottom: 13px;"> <span style="font-size:12px;"><span style="font-family:yekanYW;"><strong><em><span style="unicode-bidi:embed"><span style="line-height:115%"><span courier="" new=""><span lang="EN" new="" roman="" times="">Due to the necessity of investigating the relationship between stock markets and oil markets, many experimental researches have been conducted with different methods and data to investigate the causal relationship between stock prices and oil prices. The results of studies in different countries are different, which is due to the existence of some structural differences in these countries. The use of oil price fluctuations as an effective factor on stock prices can be justified by the fact that the fundamental value of stocks in Theory is equal to the discounted amount of expected future cash flows. The second macroeconomic events that may affect oil is the impact of shocks. The current research has focused on the effect of some important economic variables on stock returns in Iran. Therefore, considering oil supply, total demand and oil demand affecting stock market returns, it tries to explain a collective approach on stock returns through structural vector autoregression method. The results of the research showed that oil supply and demand shocks and total demand have an effect on the real price of oil and on real stock returns.</span></span></span></span></em></strong></span></span><span style="font-size:10pt"><span style="unicode-bidi:embed"><span style="line-height:115%"><span courier="" new="" style="font-family:"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif"></span></span></span></span></span></pre> <span style="font-size:10pt"><span style="unicode-bidi:embed"><span style="line-height:115%"><span courier="" new="" style="font-family:"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif"></span></span></span></span></span></div> <pre style="text-align:left; margin-bottom:13px"> <span style="font-size:10pt"><span style="unicode-bidi:embed"><span style="line-height:115%"><span style="font-family:"Courier New""></span></span></span></span></pre> عرضه نفت, تقاضای کل , تقاضای نفت ,بازده بازار سهام, خودرگرسیون برداری ساختاری oil supply, total demand, oil demand, stock market return, structural vector auto regression 403 433 http://mieaoi.ir/browse.php?a_code=A-10-225-4&slc_lang=fa&sid=1 Bagher Hesamiazizi باقر حسامی عزیزی bhesami2008@gmail.com 100319475328460010465 100319475328460010465 Yes Assitant Professor, Payame-Noor University استادیار دانشگاه پیام نور (نویسنده مسئول) hosein gholipour حسین قلی پور selda1392elsa.hg@gmail.com 100319475328460010466 100319475328460010466 No M.A student, Payame-Noor University دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد دانشگاه پیام نور