fa طراحی مدل هشدار سریع برای پیشبینی احتمال وقوع ورشکستگی بانکی در کشورهای منتخب اسلامی به روش لاجیت چندگانه تخصصي Special پژوهشي Research <div style="text-align: justify;"><em><span dir="RTL" lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:11.5pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"><span style="letter-spacing:-.2pt">در دهه&shy; های اخیر بحران</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:9.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="letter-spacing:-.2pt">‌</span></span></span></span><span dir="RTL" lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:11.5pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"><span style="letter-spacing:-.2pt">های مالی زیادی در اقتصادها رخ داده</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:9.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="letter-spacing:-.2pt">‌</span></span></span></span><span dir="RTL" lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:11.5pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"><span style="letter-spacing:-.2pt">است که اغلب همراه با عواقب سیاسی، اجتماعی و اقتصادی بوده</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:9.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="letter-spacing:-.2pt">‌</span></span></span></span><span dir="RTL" lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:11.5pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"><span style="letter-spacing:-.2pt">اند. یکی از این بحران</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:9.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="letter-spacing:-.2pt">‌</span></span></span></span><span dir="RTL" lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:11.5pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"><span style="letter-spacing:-.2pt">ها ورشکستگی بانکی است که تخریب ناشی از آن قابلیت انتقال به بازارهای دیگر را نیز دارد. سیستم بانکداری اسلامی که در صنعت بانکداری نسبتاً جدید و هنوز در حال رشد است، به دلیل دارا بودن ویژگی</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:9.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="letter-spacing:-.2pt">‌</span></span></span></span><span dir="RTL" lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:11.5pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"><span style="letter-spacing:-.2pt">های شرعی همچون غیرربوی بودن فعالیت</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:9.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="letter-spacing:-.2pt">‌‌</span></span></span></span><span dir="RTL" lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:11.5pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"><span style="letter-spacing:-.2pt">ها، نسبت به سایر بانک</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:9.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="letter-spacing:-.2pt">‌</span></span></span></span><span dir="RTL" lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:11.5pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"><span style="letter-spacing:-.2pt">ها با ریسک</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:9.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="letter-spacing:-.2pt">‌</span></span></span></span><span dir="RTL" lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:11.5pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"><span style="letter-spacing:-.2pt">ها و تنگناهای بیشتری مواجه است که لزوم پیشگیری از آن</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:9.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="letter-spacing:-.2pt">‌</span></span></span></span><span dir="RTL" lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:11.5pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"><span style="letter-spacing:-.2pt">ها را روشن می</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:9.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="letter-spacing:-.2pt">‌</span></span></span></span><span dir="RTL" lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:11.5pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"><span style="letter-spacing:-.2pt">سازد. در این مقاله با هدف طراحی مدل هشدار سریع برای پیش</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:9.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="letter-spacing:-.2pt">‌</span></span></span></span><span dir="RTL" lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:11.5pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"><span style="letter-spacing:-.2pt">بینی احتمال وقوع ورشکستگی در سیستم بانکداری 8 کشور منتخب اسلامی طی دوره زمانی 2020-1998 از روش لاجیت چندگانه استفاده شد. ورشکستگی بانکی با استفاده از شاخص </span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:9.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="letter-spacing:-.2pt">Z-Score</span></span></span></span> <span dir="RTL" lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:11.5pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"><span style="letter-spacing:-.2pt">تعیین</span></span></span></span> <span dir="RTL" lang="FA" style="font-size:11.5pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"><span style="letter-spacing:-.2pt">شد و نسبت</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:9.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="letter-spacing:-.2pt">‌</span></span></span></span><span dir="RTL" lang="FA" style="font-size:11.5pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"><span style="letter-spacing:-.2pt">های مالی به عنوان متغیرهای مؤثر بر احتمال وقوع ورشکستگی بانکی در نظر گرفته شدند. در روش لاجیت چندگانه امکان پیش</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:9.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="letter-spacing:-.2pt">‌</span></span></span></span><span dir="RTL" lang="FA" style="font-size:11.5pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"><span style="letter-spacing:-.2pt">بینی وقوع ورشکستگی در دو دوره، قبل از وقوع و حین/پس از وقوع ورشکستگی وجود دارد. نتایج نشان داد که نسبت</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:9.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="letter-spacing:-.2pt">‌</span></span></span></span><span dir="RTL" style="font-size:11.5pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"><span style="letter-spacing:-.2pt"> سرمایه در گردش به دارایی</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:9.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="letter-spacing:-.2pt">‌</span></span></span></span><span dir="RTL" lang="FA" style="font-size:11.5pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"><span style="letter-spacing:-.2pt">های بانکی و نسبت درآمد بانک قبل از زکات و مالیات به دارایی خالص در دوره قبل و پس از وقوع ورشکستگی اثر منفی بر احتمال وقوع ورشکستگی بانکی داشته</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:9.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="letter-spacing:-.2pt">‌</span></span></span></span><span dir="RTL" lang="FA" style="font-size:11.5pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"><span style="letter-spacing:-.2pt">اند. نسبت کل بدهی</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:9.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="letter-spacing:-.2pt">‌</span></span></span></span><span dir="RTL" lang="FA" style="font-size:11.5pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"><span style="letter-spacing:-.2pt">های بانکی به حقوق صاحبان سهام در هر دو دوره بر احتمال وقوع ورشکستگی اثر مثبت داشته است. از طرفی نسبت سود انباشته به کل دارایی</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:9.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="letter-spacing:-.2pt">‌</span></span></span></span><span dir="RTL" lang="FA" style="font-size:11.5pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"><span style="letter-spacing:-.2pt">های بانکی در هر دو دوره اثر معناداری بر احتمال وقوع ورشکستگی بانکی در کشورهای منتخب اسلامی نداشته است.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;</span></span></span></span></em></div> <div style="text-align: justify;"><em><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="text-justify:kashida"><span style="text-kashida:0%"><span style="line-height:normal"><span style="tab-stops:45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt"><span style="unicode-bidi:embed"><span calibri="" style="font-family:"><span lang="EN" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times="">There have been many financial crises in economies in recent decades, often with political, social, and economic consequences. One of these crises is bank bankruptcy, the destruction of which can be transferred to other markets.</span></span> <span lang="EN" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times="">The Islamic banking system, which is relatively new and still growing in the banking industry, due to its religious characteristics such as non-interest-bearing activities, faces more risks and bottlenecks than other banks, which highlights the need to prevent them. In this article, with the aim of designing a </span></span><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="letter-spacing:-.2pt">an early warning model</span></span><span lang="EN" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""> to predict the probability of bankruptcy in the banking system of 8 selected Islamic countries during the period 1998-2020, the </span></span><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="letter-spacing:-.2pt">Multinominal Logit Method</span></span><span lang="EN" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""> was used.</span></span> <span lang="EN" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times="">Bankruptcy was determined using the Z-Score and financial ratios were considered as variables affecting the probability of bank bankruptcy. In the </span></span><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="letter-spacing:-.2pt">Multinominal Logit method</span></span><span lang="EN" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times="">, it is possible to predict the occurrence of bankruptcy in two periods, before the occurrence and during / after the occurrence of&nbsp; bankruptcy. The results showed that the ratio of working capital to bank assets and the ratio of&nbsp; bank income before zakat and taxes to net assets in the period before and after bankruptcy had a negative effect on the probability of&nbsp; bank bankruptcy. The ratio of&nbsp; total bank debt to equity in both periods had a positive effect on the probability of&nbsp; bankruptcy. On the other hand, the ratio of accumulated profit to total bank assets in both periods did not have a significant effect on the probability of&nbsp; bank bankruptcy in selected Islamic countries.</span></span>&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br> &nbsp;</em></div> ورشکستگی بانکی, بانکداری اسلامی, سیستم هشدار سریع, مدل لاجیت چندگانه Bankruptcy, Islamic Banking, Early Warning System, Multinomial Logit Model 243 267 http://mieaoi.ir/browse.php?a_code=A-10-1158-1&slc_lang=fa&sid=1 mostafa najari foroushani مصطفی نجاری فروشانی mostafa.najari@iaukhsh.ac.ir 10031947532846007807 10031947532846007807 No PhD student, Department of Law and Economics, Khomeinishahr Branch, Islamic Azad University, Khomeinishahr/Isfahan, Iran دانشجوی دکتری گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده حقوق و اقتصاد، واحد خمینی‌ شهر، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، اصفهان، ایران bahar hafezi بهار حافظی hafezi@iaukhsh.ac.ir 10031947532846007808 10031947532846007808 Yes Assistant Professor, Department of Law and Economics, Khomeinishahr Branch, Islamic Azad University, Khomeinishahr/Isfahan, Iran استادیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده حقوق و اقتصاد، واحد خمینی ‌شهر، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، اصفهان، ایران mostafa rajabi مصطفی رجبی rajabi@iaukhsh.ac.ir 10031947532846007809 10031947532846007809 No Assistant Professor, Department of Law and Economics, Khomeinishahr Branch, Islamic Azad University, Khomeinishahr/Isfahan, Iran استادیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده حقوق و اقتصاد، واحد خمینی‌شهر، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، اصفهان، ایران