fa پیش بینی وضعیت آینده صنعت بانکداری در ایران مبتنی بر رویکرد آینده پژوهی تخصصي Special پژوهشي Research <div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size:14pt"><span style="line-height:normal"><span style="direction:rtl"><span style="unicode-bidi:embed"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="font-weight:bold"><i>&nbsp;</i><i><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.5pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"><span style="font-weight:normal">اهمیت راهبردی صنعت بانکی در توسعه کشور موجب شده است تا برنامه&shy;ریزی و سیاست&shy;گذاری مناسب در این صنعت تأثیرات محسوسی در توسعه سایر ابعاد کشور داشته باشد. پژوهش پیش&shy;روی با توجه به اهمیت این موضوع به منظور شناسایی مهم&shy;ترین و محتمل&shy;ترین سناریوهای پیش&shy;روی صنعت بانکی (بانک کشاورزی) انجام شده است. </span></span></span></i><i><span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:10.5pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"><span style="font-weight:normal">&nbsp;جامعه اماری این تحقیق این تحقیق 30 نفر برآورد شد که شامل خبرگان صنعت بانکی و فناوری اطلاعات ایران با دانش آینده پژوهانه و راهبردی میباشند.در این تحقیق از روش نمونه</span></span></span></i><i> </i><i><span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:10.5pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"><span style="font-weight:normal">گیری گلوله برفی استفاده شد. در این پژوهش از 10 نفر از خبرگان و متخصصان &nbsp;از حوزههای بانکی، فناوری اطلاعات و اقتصادی خواسته شد تا به سوالات پرسشنامه به دقت پاسخ دهند.</span></span></span></i><i><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.5pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"><span style="font-weight:normal"></span></span></span></i></span></span></span></span></span></span><br> <span style="font-size:14pt"><span style="line-height:normal"><span style="direction:rtl"><span style="unicode-bidi:embed"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="font-weight:bold"><i><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.5pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"><span style="font-weight:normal">در این پژوهش مهمترین عوامل</span></span></span></i><i> </i><i><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.5pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"><span style="font-weight:normal">کلیدی</span></span></span></i><i> </i><i><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.5pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"><span style="font-weight:normal">مؤثر</span></span></span></i><i> </i><i><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.5pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"><span style="font-weight:normal">بر</span></span></span></i><i> </i><i><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.5pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"><span style="font-weight:normal">آینده</span></span></span></i><i> </i><i><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.5pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"><span style="font-weight:normal">این</span></span></span></i><i> </i><i><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.5pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"><span style="font-weight:normal">صنعت</span></span></span></i><i> </i><i><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.5pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"><span style="font-weight:normal">با روش</span></span></span></i><i> </i><i><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.5pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"><span style="font-weight:normal">تحلیل</span></span></span></i><i> </i><i><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.5pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"><span style="font-weight:normal">سلسله</span></span></span></i><i> </i><i><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.5pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"><span style="font-weight:normal">مراتبی</span></span></span></i><i> </i><i><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.5pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"><span style="font-weight:normal">فازی</span></span></span></i><i> </i><i><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.5pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"><span style="font-weight:normal">انتخاب</span></span></span></i><i> </i><i><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.5pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"><span style="font-weight:normal">و</span></span></span></i><i> </i><i><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.5pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"><span style="font-weight:normal">سپس</span></span></span></i><i> </i><i><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.5pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"><span style="font-weight:normal">با</span></span></span></i><i> </i><i><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.5pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"><span style="font-weight:normal">تحلیل</span></span></span></i><i> </i><i><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.5pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"><span style="font-weight:normal">ماتریس</span></span></span></i><i> </i><i><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.5pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"><span style="font-weight:normal">تأثیر</span></span></span></i><i> </i><i><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.5pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"><span style="font-weight:normal">متقاطع</span></span></span></i><i> </i><i><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.5pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"><span style="font-weight:normal">ماهیت</span></span></span></i><i> </i><i><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.5pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"><span style="font-weight:normal">و</span></span></span></i><i> </i><i><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.5pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"><span style="font-weight:normal">نحوه</span></span></span></i><i> </i><i><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.5pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"><span style="font-weight:normal">اثرگذاری هریک</span></span></span></i><i> </i><i><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.5pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"><span style="font-weight:normal">از</span></span></span></i><i> </i><i><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.5pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"><span style="font-weight:normal">این</span></span></span></i><i> </i><i><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.5pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"><span style="font-weight:normal">عوامل</span></span></span></i><i> </i><i><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.5pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"><span style="font-weight:normal">بر</span></span></span></i><i> </i><i><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.5pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"><span style="font-weight:normal">صنعت</span></span></span></i><i> </i><i><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.5pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"><span style="font-weight:normal">بانکداری</span></span></span></i><i> </i><i><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.5pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"><span style="font-weight:normal">مشخص</span></span></span></i><i> </i><i><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.5pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"><span style="font-weight:normal">و</span></span></span></i><i> </i><i><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.5pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"><span style="font-weight:normal">در</span></span></span></i><i> </i><i><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.5pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"><span style="font-weight:normal">ادامه</span></span></span></i><i> </i><i><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.5pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"><span style="font-weight:normal">از</span></span></span></i><i> </i><i><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.5pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"><span style="font-weight:normal">روش</span></span></span></i><i> </i><i><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.5pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"><span style="font-weight:normal">تحلیل</span></span></span></i><i> </i><i><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.5pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"><span style="font-weight:normal">بالانس</span></span></span></i><i> </i><i><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.5pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"><span style="font-weight:normal">اثرات</span></span></span></i><i> </i><i><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.5pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"><span style="font-weight:normal">متقابل</span></span></span></i><i> </i><i><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.5pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"><span style="font-weight:normal">برای سناریونویسی</span></span></span></i><i> </i><i><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.5pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"><span style="font-weight:normal">استفاده</span></span></span></i><i> </i><i><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.5pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"><span style="font-weight:normal">شد. </span></span></span></i><i>&nbsp;</i><i><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.5pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"><span style="font-weight:normal">نتایج&nbsp; موجب شناسایی سناریو&shy;های</span></span></span></i><i> </i><i><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.5pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"><span style="font-weight:normal">خوش</span></span></span></i><i> </i><i><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.5pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"><span style="font-weight:normal">بینانه</span></span></span></i><i> </i><i><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.5pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"><span style="font-weight:normal">برای بانک،</span></span></span></i><i> </i><i><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.5pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"><span style="font-weight:normal">تحول</span></span></span></i><i> </i><i><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.5pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"><span style="font-weight:normal">صنعت</span></span></span></i><i> </i><i><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.5pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"><span style="font-weight:normal">بانکی،</span></span></span></i><i> </i><i><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.5pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"><span style="font-weight:normal">شرایط</span></span></span></i><i> </i><i><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.5pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"><span style="font-weight:normal">تورمی</span></span></span></i><i> </i><i><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.5pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"><span style="font-weight:normal">و</span></span></span></i><i> </i><i><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.5pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"><span style="font-weight:normal">تحریم</span></span></span></i><i> </i><i><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.5pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"><span style="font-weight:normal">شناسایی</span></span></span></i><i> </i><i><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.5pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"><span style="font-weight:normal">شدند. با توجه به این چهار سناریو این امکان بوجود آمد تا بتوان</span></span></span></i><i> </i><i><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.5pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"><span style="font-weight:normal">برنامه</span></span></span></i><i> </i><i><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.5pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"><span style="font-weight:normal">ریزی راهبردی</span></span></span></i><i> </i><i><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.5pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"><span style="font-weight:normal">و</span></span></span></i><i> </i><i><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.5pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"><span style="font-weight:normal">عملیاتی</span></span></span></i><i> </i><i><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.5pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"><span style="font-weight:normal">برای</span></span></span></i><i> </i><i><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.5pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"><span style="font-weight:normal">بانک</span></span></span></i><i> </i><i><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.5pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"><span style="font-weight:normal">مبتنی</span></span></span></i><i> </i><i><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.5pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"><span style="font-weight:normal">بر</span></span></span></i><i> </i><i><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.5pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"><span style="font-weight:normal">تحلیل</span></span></span></i><i> </i><i><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.5pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"><span style="font-weight:normal">عدم</span></span></span></i><i> </i><i><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.5pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"><span style="font-weight:normal">قطعیت</span></span></span></i><i> </i><i><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.5pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"><span style="font-weight:normal">های</span></span></span></i><i> </i><i><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.5pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"><span style="font-weight:normal">پیش</span></span></span></i><i> </i><i><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.5pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"><span style="font-weight:normal">روی</span></span></span></i><i> </i><i><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.5pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"><span style="font-weight:normal">برای</span></span></span></i><i> </i><i><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.5pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"><span style="font-weight:normal">هریک</span></span></span></i><i> </i><i><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.5pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"><span style="font-weight:normal">از سناریوها</span></span></span></i><i> </i><i><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.5pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"><span style="font-weight:normal">انجام شود</span></span></span></i><i><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.5pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">.</span></span></i></span></span></span></span></span></span><br> &nbsp;</div> <div style="text-align: justify;"><em><span style="font-size:12pt"><span style="unicode-bidi:embed"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="font-size:11.5pt">The strategic importance of the banking industry in the development of the country has made proper planning and policy making in this industry have a significant impact on the development of other aspects of the country. The research is done on the importance of this issue to identify the most important and possible scenarios facing the banking industry (agricultural bank). The research community of this study was estimated at 30 people, including Iranian banking and information technology experts with future research and strategic knowledge. Snowball sampling was used; 10 experts and experts from the banking, information technology and economic fields were asked to answer the questionnaire questions carefully.</span></span></span></span><br> <span style="font-size:12pt"><span style="unicode-bidi:embed"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="font-size:11.5pt">In this study, the most important key factors affecting the future of this industry were selected by fuzzy hierarchical analysis and then by the matrix analysis the intersecting effect of each of these factors on the banking industry was identified and subsequently used the interplay analysis method for scenariography. The results identified optimistic scenarios for the bank, the transformation of the banking industry, the inflationary and the sanctions conditions. Given these four scenarios, it was possible to implement strategic and operational planning for the bank based on uncertainty analysis for each of the mentioned scenarios.</span></span></span></span><br> &nbsp;</em></div> آینده پژوهی, صنعت بانکداری, ثبات Futures Research, Banking Industry, Stability 159 175 http://mieaoi.ir/browse.php?a_code=A-10-1353-1&slc_lang=fa&sid=1 rasool Nasralhi Saeedlou رسول نصرالهی سعیدلو rasulnasrolahisaedlo@gmail.com 10031947532846008833 10031947532846008833 Yes Department of Economics, Tabriz University, Tabriz, Iran گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران (نویسنده مسئول) Reza Ranj pour رضا رنج پور reza.ranjpour@gmail.com@gmail.com 10031947532846008834 10031947532846008834 No Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Tabriz University, Tabriz, Iran دانشیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران