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Investigating the effect of shock of macroeconomic variables on the resilience of pension funds (Case study of the Social Security Organization)
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Hasan Nagafi1   , Margan Daman keshede2 , Taymor Mohahadi3 , Masome Shogaee4 , Ali reza Dagheghe asl1 |
1- Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Accounting, Islamic Azad University, Central Tehran Branch, Tehran, Iran
2- Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Accounting, Islamic Azad University, Central Tehran Branch, Tehran, Iran (Corresponding Author) , margandamankeshedeh@gmail.com
3- Associate Professor, Faculty Member, Department of Economics, Allameh University
4- Department of Environmental Engineering, Parand Faculty, Islamic Azad University, Parand, Iran |
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Abstract: (1300 Views) |
The present paper investigates the effect of shock of macroeconomic variables on the resilience of pension funds using the SVAR structural vector auto regression model for the years 1350-1396. Based on the estimation results; Government debt in the second, third and fourth periods accounts for about 41% of changes in total expenditures. Unemployment in the second period accounts for 2.42% of changes in total expenditures. Inflation in the second period accounted for 3.59% of changes in total expenditures. The government debt shock is responsible for the largest share of fluctuations and changes in expenditures with about 41%. The second rank is inflation shock with a share of about 3%. Unemployment shock also had the lowest share in changes in total expenditure variance with about 2%. According to the results and structure of Iran's economy, the dependence of government revenue on oil and sanctions and the structure of government are the main problems of the Iranian economy. |
Article number: 14 |
| Keywords: Macroeconomic Variable Shock, Pension Funds, SVAR Model |
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Full-Text [PDF 1115 kb]
(588 Downloads)
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Article type: Research |
Subject:
Special
Received: 2021/10/12 | Accepted: 2021/11/27 | Published: 2021/12/1
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