[Home ] [Archive]   [ فارسی ]  
:: About :: Main :: Current Issue :: Archive :: Search :: Submit :: Contact ::
Main Menu
Home::
Journal Information::
Articles archive::
For Authors::
For Reviewers::
Registration::
Contact us::
Site Facilities::
::
Search in website

Advanced Search
..
Receive site information
Enter your Email in the following box to receive the site news and information.
..
:: Volume 12, Issue 42 (5-2023) ::
mieaoi 2023, 12(42): 415-441 Back to browse issues page
Dynamic effects of international oil price shocks on economic fluctuations in Iran Using Structural Vector Autoregressive Model
Mohsen Omrani khu1 , Syed nemat Allah mousavi2 , Reza Moghadasi3
1- Doctoral student of oil and gas economics department, Marodasht branch, Islamic Azad University, Marodasht, Iran.
2- Associate Professor , seyed_1976mo@yahoo.com
3- Associate Professor
Abstract:   (454 Views)
Most of the economic plans of industrialized countries due to their dependence on oil imports, as well as oil exporting countries due to the importance of oil revenues in their economy, are formed based on oil price changes and developments. Oil price developments, which are interpreted as shocks, are mostly random in nature, and for this reason, the future shocks or the probability of their occurrence or both are uncertain and unknown for the actors of the oil markets. raw will be uncertain. In this research, the effects of international crude oil price shocks on economic fluctuations in Iran have been investigated using the structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model. In the short term, oil supply and specific demand shocks in the oil market led to an increase in oil prices and, as a result, curb economic production. An increase in oil prices caused by aggregate demand shocks will increase economic output. Aggregate economic demand shock acts as the main source of oil price shocks, and the specific demand of the oil market creates more restraining effects on economic production than aggregate supply and demand. Also, energy industries are less affected by supply and demand shocks than other industries due to the effect of government subsidies and the share system of state companies. The effect of specific demand shocks on oil price on industrial production is greater than supply shocks and demand shocks.
 
Article number: 17
Keywords: Oil price shock, structural vector autoregression (SVAR), specific demand shock, macroeconomic fluctuations.
Full-Text [PDF 1238 kb]   (112 Downloads)    
Article type: Research | Subject: General
Received: 2023/04/17 | Accepted: 2023/06/9 | Published: 2023/05/31
Send email to the article author

Add your comments about this article
Your username or Email:

CAPTCHA


XML   Persian Abstract   Print


Download citation:
BibTeX | RIS | EndNote | Medlars | ProCite | Reference Manager | RefWorks
Send citation to:

omrani khu M, allah mousavi S N, moghadasi R. Dynamic effects of international oil price shocks on economic fluctuations in Iran Using Structural Vector Autoregressive Model. mieaoi 2023; 12 (42) : 17
URL: http://mieaoi.ir/article-1-1605-en.html


Rights and permissions
Creative Commons License This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
Volume 12, Issue 42 (5-2023) Back to browse issues page
نشریه اقتصاد و بانکداری اسلامی Islamic Economics and Banking
Persian site map - English site map - Created in 0.06 seconds with 35 queries by YEKTAWEB 4691