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Dynamic effects of international oil price shocks on economic fluctuations in Iran Using Structural Vector Autoregressive Model
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Mohsen Omrani khu1   , Syed nemat Allah mousavi2 , Reza Moghadasi3 |
1- Doctoral student of oil and gas economics department, Marodasht branch, Islamic Azad University, Marodasht, Iran.
2- Associate Professor , seyed_1976mo@yahoo.com
3- Associate Professor |
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Abstract: (458 Views) |
Most of the economic plans of industrialized countries due to their dependence on oil imports, as well as oil exporting countries due to the importance of oil revenues in their economy, are formed based on oil price changes and developments. Oil price developments, which are interpreted as shocks, are mostly random in nature, and for this reason, the future shocks or the probability of their occurrence or both are uncertain and unknown for the actors of the oil markets. raw will be uncertain. In this research, the effects of international crude oil price shocks on economic fluctuations in Iran have been investigated using the structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model. In the short term, oil supply and specific demand shocks in the oil market led to an increase in oil prices and, as a result, curb economic production. An increase in oil prices caused by aggregate demand shocks will increase economic output. Aggregate economic demand shock acts as the main source of oil price shocks, and the specific demand of the oil market creates more restraining effects on economic production than aggregate supply and demand. Also, energy industries are less affected by supply and demand shocks than other industries due to the effect of government subsidies and the share system of state companies. The effect of specific demand shocks on oil price on industrial production is greater than supply shocks and demand shocks.
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Article number: 17 |
| Keywords: Oil price shock, structural vector autoregression (SVAR), specific demand shock, macroeconomic fluctuations. |
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Full-Text [PDF 1238 kb]
(114 Downloads)
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Article type: Research |
Subject:
General
Received: 2023/04/17 | Accepted: 2023/06/9 | Published: 2023/05/31
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