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Predicting the financial helplessness of companies using an artificial immune system
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Reza Mehrabi1   , Mahmood Hemmatfar 2, Farid Sefati3 |
1- phD student of accounting department, Borujard branch, Islamic Azad University, Borujard, Iran
2- Associate Professor of Accounting Department, Borujard Branch, Islamic Azad University, Borujard, Iran , dr.hematfar@yahoo.com
3- Associate Professor of Accounting Department, Borujard Branch, Islamic Azad University, Borujard, Iran |
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Abstract: (85 Views) |
Financial helplessness occurs before financial bankruptcy; Predicting the financial helplessness of companies is one of the most important topics facing managers and can greatly help the success and continuity of companies' life; because by providing alarming and timely signals, it can inform company managers about the occurrence of financial helplessness and bankruptcy; Therefore, the aim of the current research is to study and evaluate helplessness prediction using artificial immune system algorithm. The statistical population includes companies admitted to the Tehran Stock Exchange and the sample used includes 164 healthy and distressed companies in the period between 2016-2018.
The prediction variables were selected based on the ratios that were presented in the results of previous research as the main prediction variables in their prediction model. In this research, the collected data are summarized using EXCEL software and then the variables are calculated. Before implementing the AIRS algorithm, a statistical analysis is performed using PYTHON software to select variables that are more important for predicting helplessness. Financial helplessness has a qualitative nature and a nominal measurement scale. In measuring this variable, the number one is assigned to financially helpless companies and zero to non-financially helpless companies.
The result of this research showed that the results extracted from the predictions made by the model and comparing it with the reality at the overall accuracy level of 86% have the ability to identify helpless and healthy companies. The features that distinguish this research from other researches related to this issue are the use of 5 criteria specific to helplessness (not bankruptcy criteria) to separate helpless from healthy companies, and as an innovation compared to previous studies.
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Article number: 19 |
| Keywords: financial helplessness, artificial immune system, financial ratios, neural network, stock exchange |
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Full-Text [PDF 556 kb]
(44 Downloads)
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Article type: Research |
Subject:
General
Received: 2023/08/20 | Accepted: 2023/11/9 | Published: 2023/12/31
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