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Designing a Hybrid Model for Tax Fraud Risk Analysis Using a Mixed-Methods Approach
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Reza Abbasnezhad1   , Mehdi Aghabeigi *2 , Yaghoub Aghdam Mazraeh3 |
1- Department of Accounting, Ta.C., Islamic Azad University, Tabriz, Iran
2- Department of Accounting, Male.C., Islamic Azad University, Malekan, Iran. , mehdi.mab@iau.ac.ir
3- Department of Accounting, Sou.C., Islamic Azad University, Sofian, Iran. |
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Abstract: (5 Views) |
This study is situated at the intersection of tax fraud literature and structural–contextual approaches to the analysis of deviant economic behavior, aiming to provide a multi-level and context-sensitive understanding of fraud risk within the specific setting of Iran’s tax system. At the theoretical level, the study moves beyond purely individualistic explanations and reconceptualizes the logic of tax fraud risk formation through the interplay of structure, context, and strategy. To this end, an exploratory–explanatory mixed-methods design was employed to develop and articulate a hybrid model for analyzing tax fraud risk within the Iranian National Tax Administration. In the first stage, grounded theory was applied through in-depth semi-structured interviews with managers, tax auditors, and domain experts to identify the core categories shaping tax fraud. The results of open, axial, and selective coding revealed that “structural pressures” (institutional, legal, technological, and performance-related) and “contextual conditions” (organizational structure and culture, regulatory complexity and ambiguity, and the quality of information infrastructure) constitute the generative environment of fraud risk. These factors, by shaping “actors’ strategies” (adaptive, opportunistic, and neutralization strategies), ultimately lead to individual, organizational, and institutional consequences. The credibility and trustworthiness of qualitative findings were ensured through constant comparison, participant validation, and the maintenance of an audit trail. In the second stage, a survey instrument was developed based on the qualitative categories, and data were collected from selected stakeholders. The conceptual model was then tested using Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM). The findings indicate that structural pressures exert a strong and significant effect on both tax fraud risk and fraud strategies, while contextual conditions directly explain the adoption of such strategies. In contrast, the moderating role of managerial orientation was not statistically significant, and tax fraud risk emerged less as an independent causal driver and more as a reflective construct shaped by the interaction of structural pressures and contextual conditions. The final hybrid model conceptualizes tax fraud risk as a dynamic outcome of the interaction between structure, context, and strategy. By challenging the sufficiency of classical models, the study provides clear policy implications for structural reform, reduction of fraud opportunities, and enhancement of tax compliance.
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| Keywords: Tax Fraud Risk, Fraud Strategies, Structural Pressures, Contextual Conditions, Grounded Theory, Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) |
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Full-Text [PDF 1245 kb]
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Article type: Research |
Subject:
Special
Received: 2026/07/14 | Accepted: 2026/08/15
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