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Designing Future Scenarios for Human Capital in Iranian Islamic Banking in the Era of Artificial Intelligence and Open Banking
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Eesa Niazi *1   , Abdolghani Rasteghar2 |
1- Assistant professor, Department of Management, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, Golestan University, Gorgan; Iran , e.niazi@gu.ac.ir
2- Assistant professor, Department of Management, Azadshahr Faculty of Humanities, Gonbadkavos University, Gonbadkavos, Iran |
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Abstract: (8 Views) |
This study aims to analyze the future of human capital in Iranian Islamic banking in the era of artificial intelligence (AI) and open banking and to develop a strategic framework for human resource policymaking. Amid accelerated technological transformation, intensified competition with fintech firms, rising performance pressures, and emerging ethical challenges in algorithmic decision-making, the Islamic banking system faces structural uncertainties that may affect Sharia legitimacy, human capital quality, and public trust. The research adopts an exploratory–explanatory foresight approach using a mixed-method design. In the first stage, key drivers and trends were identified through a systematic literature review and 18 in-depth interviews with experts in Islamic banking, human resource management, and financial technologies. In the second stage, structural analysis was conducted using MICMAC software, leading to the identification of 14 key variables and strategic uncertainties. Three plausible states were defined for each variable, and through cross-impact consistency analysis in Scenario Wizard software, eleven robust scenarios with the highest degree of internal coherence were generated. In the enrichment phase, these scenarios were clustered based on structural convergence into four meaningful scenario archetypes: techno-ethical synergistic transformation, managed transition, human capital erosion under technological competition, and ethical resilience with slow digital transformation. The findings indicate that a desirable future depends on the simultaneous reinforcement of data-driven meritocracy, ethical leadership, integrated technology–Sharia training, and digital Sharia governance mechanisms. Conversely, neglecting hybrid skill development and ethical governance may exacerbate skill gaps, intensify brain drain, and deepen tensions between profitability and Sharia principles. By offering a systematic framework for analyzing human capital uncertainties, this study provides an evidence-based foundation for designing adaptive and forward-looking policies in Islamic banking. |
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| Keywords: Human capital, Islamic banking, Artificial intelligence, Open banking, Scenario planning |
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Full-Text [PDF 882 kb]
(6 Downloads)
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Article type: Research |
Subject:
Special
Received: 2025/07/28 | Accepted: 2026/11/2
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